Gold demand falls in Q2 2015 as reduced consumer appetite in
Asia outweighs increased buying in some western markets
World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report for Q2 2015 shows total demand was 915 tonnes (t), a fall of 12% compared to the same period last year, due mainly to a decline in demand from consumers in India and China. However, demand in Europe and the US grew, driven by a mixture of increasingly confident jewellery buyers and strong demand for bars and coins. Looking ahead, there are encouraging signs moving into what are traditionally the busiest quarters for gold buying in India and China.
Jewellery demand:Overall jewellery demand was down 14% to 513t, from 595t in 2014 due to falls in consumer spending in Asia. In China, slowing economic growth and a turbulent stock market led to a 5% fall in demand to 174t. In India, the heavy unseasonal rains in Q1 and drought in Q2 impacted rural incomes and affected gold demand.
In addition, a dearth of auspicious days for marriages in Q3 meant that wedding-related demand was unusually slow, leading to a fall in jewellery demand of 23% to 118t. Overall, if we look at the picture for the first half of this year in India, jewellery was down 3% to 268.8t from 276.1t (H1 2014). The US remained steady, with jewellery demand up for the sixth consecutive quarter by 2% (26t). In Europe demand was also up, with Germany up 7% and the UK and Spain both growing by 6%.
Invstment demand: Global investment demand was down 11% to 179t from 200t in Q2 2014. India was the main driver of the fall, down 30% to 37t, due to uncertain price expectations and a buoyant stock market. This was countered by a rise in Chinese bar and coin demand, up 6% to 42t.
In Europe, fears of a potential Greek exit from the eurozone saw retail investment in gold reach 47t, a rise of 19% compared to last year. The US also saw strong demand, with retail investment increasing by 7%. Of particular note was the huge burst of activity in June, when bullion coin sales by the US Mint hit a 17-month high.
Elsewhere, central banks continued to be strong buyers of gold. Net official sector purchases totalled 137t, with Russia and Kazakhstan the biggest purchasers. Although a year-on-year fall of 13%, buying increased by 11% when compared with the first quarter of this year. It is the 18th consecutive quarter where central banks were net purchasers of gold.
Total supply was down 5% to 1,033t, as an increase in mine production of 3% to 787t in Q2 2015 was offset by declining recycling levels - down 8% to 251t. The indication for H2 2015 is that mine production will slow as the gold mining industry continues to manage their costs and optimise operations in the face of challenging markets.
Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence at the World Gold Council, said: “It’s been a challenging market for gold this quarter, particularly in Asia, on the back of falls in India and China. The reverse is true for western jewellery markets, as increased economic confidence led to continued growth in consumer demand. It is fair to say that investment demand for the quarter remained muted given the continuing recovery in the US economy and booming stock markets in India and China during the quarter.
Jewellery market prospects look healthier for the remainder of the year with the upcoming wedding and festival season in India. In addition, falls in the gold price have historically triggered buying in price sensitive markets and we are already seeing early indications of this across Asia and the Middle East. Conversely, sharp falls in Chinese stock markets have shaken the largely consumer investment base and we are seeing early indications of interest in buying gold again - all illustrating the unique self balancing nature of gold demand and the diverse drivers which underpin it.”
Gold demand and supply statistics for Q2 2015
1: Overall demand was down 12% in Q2 2015 to 915t compared to 1,038t in Q2 2014.
2: Total consumer demand – made up of jewellery demand and coin and bar demand – totalled 715t, down 14% compared to Q2 2014.
3: Global jewellery demand was 513t, down 14% compared to the same period last year, due to falls in China, down 5% to 174t, as well as India, down 23% to 118t. The US and Europe saw continued growth with the US up 2% to 26t, and Europe up 1% to 15t.
4: Total investment demandwas down 11% to 179t, compared to 200t in the same quarter the previous year. Demand for bars and coins saw a 15% drop to 201t from 238t the previous year, as the sector was affected by an expected increase in US interest rates and a continued shift towards other asset classes, notably equities. ETFs saw outflows totalling 23t, lower than the outflows of 38t seen in the same quarter last year.
5: Central banks continued to be strong buyers of gold, accounting for 137t in Q2 2015, slightly down on the equivalent quarter last year, but up 11% compared to the previous quarter. It was the 18th consecutive quarter where central banks were net purchasers.
6: Year-on-year quarterly mine production increased 3% to 787t in Q2 2015, against 763t in Q2 2014. Recycling levels were down 8% year-on-year to 251t compared to 273t in Q2 2014, resulting intotal supplyfalling 5% to 1,033t.